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A Decision Support System For Multi-Project Cash Flow And Schedule Risk Assessment: Contractor’s Perspective

BROWSE_DETAIL_CREATION_DATE: 08-08-2018

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BROWSE_DETAIL_TYPE: Thesis

BROWSE_DETAIL_SUB_TYPE: EngD

BROWSE_DETAIL_PUBLISH_STATE: Unpublished

BROWSE_DETAIL_FORMAT: PDF Document

BROWSE_DETAIL_LANG: English

BROWSE_DETAIL_SUBJECTS: Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General),

BROWSE_DETAIL_CREATORS: Yussef, Mohammed Abdelkader Mohammed (Author),

BROWSE_DETAIL_CONTRIBUTERS: Özkil, Altan (Advisor),

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Decision Support System, Multi Project Cash Flow Forecasting, Monte Carlo Simulation, Portfolio Risk Management


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This thesis presents a Decision Support System (DSS) for multi-project cash flow and schedule risk assessment for contractors. The main objective of the proposed DSS is to develop a methodology which quantifies the cost and time uncertainty of multi-projects for cash flow analysis, during bid stage from a general contractor’s perspective. The proposed methodology possesses necessary steps. The previous studies that focus on probabilistic cash flow management are reviewed to investigate the existing cash flow forecasting methods. Then a new methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation technique for DSS is presented for cash flow forecasting of multi-projects. The advantages of the proposed methodology are demonstrated by the analysis of three real construction projects. Finally, scenario analyses are performed to determine the optimal project parameters that gives the best Net Cash Flow (NCF) forecasting by using proposed methodology. The main contribution of this thesis is that it enables integrated cash flow risk analysis of multiple projects simultaneously. This helps decision maker to adequately identify and manage multi-project risks related cost, schedule and cash flow.


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